监测系统棉花产量调查:预测2017年总产569.8万吨
为全面了解2017年棉花产量情况,国家棉花市场监测系统于10月15至30日在全国范围内展开棉花产量调查,样本涉及15个省(自治区)、70个植棉县(市、团场)、2800个定点植棉信息联系户。调查结果显示,2017年中国棉花平均单产119.8公斤/亩,同比增加2.6%,较8月份调查结果下降2.4个百分点;按中国棉花实播面积4757.3万亩测算,预计总产量569.8万吨,同比增加11.4%,较8月份预测下降2.4个百分点。具体情况如下:
今年黄河流域温度、湿度适宜,土壤墒情好,新棉马克隆值、强度、白棉占比数量均好于上年同期,但8月下旬小部分区域遭受冰雹灾害,单产受到一定影响。该区域平均单产78.5公斤/亩,同比减少1%,较8月份调查结果减少4.9个百分点;预计总产量70.6万吨,同比增加7%,较8月份预测减少4.9个百分点。
今年长江流域8月下旬局部降雨偏多,对个别省的棉花长势影响较大,棉花衣分、马值、长度、强力等指标均受影响,部分省份单产环比降幅较大。后期天气转好,利于棉花恢复性生长。该区域棉花平均单产56公斤/亩,同比减少6.8%,较8月份调查结果减少17.2个百分点;预计总产量34.1万吨,同比减少1.4%,较8月份预测减少17.2个百分点。
西北内陆棉花平均单产144.4公斤/亩,同比增加3.7%,较8月份调查结果减少0.7个百分点;预计总产量462.1万吨,同比增加13.2%,较8月份预测减少0.7个百分点。8月下旬新疆部分地区出现降雨,降温幅度也较大,对棉花单产带来不利影响。但总体而言,农户对今年新疆的天气评价较好,对棉花的吐絮、生长和采摘都十分有利,产量及品质同比都有较大幅度提升。预计2017年新疆平均单产144.9公斤/亩,同比增加3.8%,预计总产量458.3万吨,同比增加13.1%,均较8月份预测减少0.7个百分点。(来源:亚洲纺织联盟)
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